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The three polls we are referring to are the ones that had questionable crosstabs and were circulated earlier today. They apparently were not "legit" polls. The NC poll was the only legitimate poll from them today. Trafalgar removed them themselves it looks like then. Not 538 or RCP.
Trafalgar is transparent, their polling overvalues rural areas by giving every district around the same sample size, despite the fact urban areas tend to have more people. This November, if people in the rural areas come to the polls in mass, while the urban area voters are ho-hum, Trafalgar will be correct again like they were in 2016.
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Politics. The last poll they have listed for them was on Oct. 25, the day all of that weirdness happened with the cross-tabs suddenly "disappearing" and the Trafalgar pollster claiming that it wasn't a legit poll from them. Since then, according to Trafalgar's website, polls in PA, WI, MN, and MI have been released and are not on the 538 site.
This skews towards the elderly who tend to vote more conservative overall. It also tends to skew towards the unhappy who tend to vote against the incumbent. Their response rate on this poll was 1.45%. It’s also likely they messed up estimating the bias in who responded.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. 538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis. Oh this is why Biden's approval suddenly dropped over the last week on the aggregate for 538; I noticed Rasmussen being gone from the latest polls for approval and I guess I know why.
To get the exact same results in 4 polls of 4 different states with 4 different samples in 3 different regions is just so absurdly unlikely. I mentioned it in a post further down, but Gravis, another right-leaning IVR pollster, recently released 3 polls in MI, WI, and PA and their polls had a spread of 6 points and those states are very similar.
538 shouldn't just downgrade Trafalgar, it should disregard them entirely. Politics. Trafalgar burst onto the scene in 2016 as a big name Republican pollster, and they made a name for themselves by correctly predicting a Trump victory. They relied heavily on the idea of the "silent Trump voter" that would not be reflected in the polls and, to ...
Four Years Out, Some Voters Look Back at Trump’s Presidency More Positively: “A new poll by The New York Times and Siena College finds that voters think highly of the former p
As to a number of swing states, Trafalgar's latest 2020 general election polls showed Trump winning Arizona by 3 points, Georgia by 4 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 1 point They're living off their 2016 luck and people feel obligated to include them in every election discussion since they claim to be the best at "finding" right wing ...