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538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Harris wins 59 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November.