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538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
2024 Presidential Election Polls. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
2024 election guide: Presidential candidates, polls, primaries and caucuses, voter information and results for November 5, 2024
The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. [1] Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will choose electors to the Electoral College, who will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.
President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump cruised to victory in their respective parties’ primaries.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Kamala Harris Donald Trump US election. An in-depth look at the polls and what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the White House.